These are the challenges that Cuba has in 2022

These are the challenges that Cuba has in 2022

HAVANA, Jan.1st  The redirection of the precarious Cuban economic situation is the main challenge facing the country, immersed in one of its greatest crises in decades, something that can have repercussions in very diverse spheres, from political to cultural, passing through sports.

These are some of the main challenges facing Cuba in 2022:

PANDEMIC CONTROL

Cuba closes 2021 with the epidemiological situation apparently under control despite the global spread of the omicron variant, of which only five cases have been detected on the island. In recent weeks, the average number of new infections has not exceeded one hundred a day. Gone are the peaks of July and August, with more than 9,000 daily positives and about a hundred deaths a day from complications linked to covid-19.

Keeping the epidemiological situation under control in 2022 is essential for Cuba. To maintain its health system, which was already in a precarious structural situation before the pandemic, and also for its economy, which depends on the inflow of foreign currency reported by international tourism.

IMMUNIZATION OF THE POPULATION

The Cuban authorities raise to 85% the percentage of the national population, of 11.2 million people, that has already received the complete schedule of one of the three vaccines that the country has developed against covid-19: Abdala, Soberana 02 and Soberana Plus. The immunization campaign includes minors from the age of two.

The state company BioCubaFarma has assured that they are analyzing the omicron variant in case it is necessary to modulate the current vaccines in order to maintain their effectiveness (higher than 90% in the three cases according to their own studies, which have not been contrasted by independent institutions). to this mutation and that, if necessary, they would be able to produce the updated formulas shortly.

PROTESTS

The serious economic crisis that the country is going through – due to the combination of the pandemic, the tightening of US sanctions and mismanagement by the state – has caused throughout 2021 shortages, queues to obtain basic food and medicine, prolonged blackouts and high inflation.

This situation was the breeding ground in which the massive spontaneous protests in July took place, in which thousands of people came out to protest throughout the country against the government.

The current macroeconomic situation in Cuba is similar, although the epidemiological context is more positive, and disaffection and discontent persist in large social groups. The failure of the dissident march of November 15 had more to do with the deployment of State Security than with a change in the framework conditions.

PRISONERS

According to the NGO Cubalex, 1,320 people have been detained in Cuba as a result of the July 11 protests, of which 698 were still in prison or with precautionary measures of deprivation of liberty of some kind as of December 20, while the legal process progressed in her against. Among those arrested are well-known activists, but also anonymous citizens who came out to protest on July 11.

Faced with criticism from NGOs, governments and international organizations, the Cuban Executive denies that they are trials of a political nature. The president of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel, recently assured that in the country “there are no political prisoners” and that Cubans “can freely demonstrate” against the revolution.

GROWTH AND INFLATION

Cuba’s gross domestic product (GDP) collapsed 13% in the year and a half between March 2020 and September 2021 in the wake of the pandemic, according to government figures.

However, in the last quarter of 2021, thanks to the control of the pandemic and the reopening of tourism, a “gradual” recovery has begun which, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning, will allow closing 2021 with a growth of 2%. By 2022 the Cuban Government plans to grow 4%.

The Minister of Finance and Prices, Meisi Bolaños Weiss, assured this December that “solving the high inflation is the main challenge of the economy.” The Cuban government estimates that this year will close with a 70% price increase in retail trade. In the informal market, a more than usual space for buying and selling basic essentials for many Cubans, inflation has shot up to 6,900%, according to estimates by the Executive.

US SANCTIONS

One of the burdens on the Cuban economy for decades is the embargo imposed by the United States, which tightened the previous government, led by Donald Trump (2017-2021), with 243 new sanctions, in one of its last decisions before abandoning the White House and after having reversed the process of bilateral rapprochement promoted by his predecessor, Barack Obama (2009-2017), a moment known as the “thaw.”

Current US President Joe Biden promised during the campaign to remove this latest package of sanctions but has failed to do so in his first year in office. The White House policy with respect to Cuba has been “under review” for months.

Behind this caution is the increase in repression on the island, as was clear after July 11 and around November 15, but also the effect that a step in this sense could have on the vote of the Cuban community and in general Latin Americans in the elections scheduled in 2022 in the decisive state of Florida.

RECOVER INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

The recovery of international tourism is key for Cuba. It is the second official source of foreign currency -only behind the sale of professional services abroad- and accounts for about 10% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Maintaining the flow of tourists depends directly on the epidemiological situation both in Cuba and in the main tourist source markets, where there are countries with uneven evolution of the pandemic, such as Canada, Russia and Spain.

The shortage of basic products such as food and medicine can be linked, among other reasons, to the lack of foreign exchange, which undermines Cuba’s import capacity. The country reactivated international tourism on November 15, after significantly reducing the incidence of the coronavirus in the country after months of hiatus in the tourism sector, but the extension of the omicron variant poses a threat.

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