Hurrican season 2024 will be very active, estimates Insmet

Hurrican season 2024 will be very active, estimates Insmet

HAVANA, May 8  With an active hurricane season in 2024, the danger of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is 80 percent (%) probability,indicated the Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) in its forecast of the year’s cyclonic activity.

The report warns that in the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, the probability that the largest of the Antilles will be affected by a tropical cyclone, at least, is 90%.

The fundamental oceanic and atmospheric conditions that regulate tropical cyclonic activity over the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will be favorable for the cyclonic season to be very active, indicates the text, prepared by the Forecast Center and Climate Center of Insmet.

The sea surface temperature in the tropical strip of the North Atlantic has shown high values from June 2023 to April 2024, and models indicate that this warming could persist during the cyclonic season and favorably influence the formation and development of tropical cyclones.

Under these conditions, it is expected that 20 tropical cyclones will form throughout the North Atlantic basin, 11 of which may reach hurricane status.

Of the total tropical cyclones, 14 could develop in the Atlantic oceanic area, four in the Caribbean Sea and another two in the Gulf of Mexico.


The report explains that another important factor to take into account for the forecast of the cyclonic season is that the current El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event has begun to weaken: most models predict that the current ENSO could end in May, subsequently establishing neutral conditions.

In addition, there is a high probability that a La Niña – Southern Oscillation (AENOS) event will develop in the coming months, which would also be favorable for the cyclonic season to be very active.

Regarding the regional atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, the forecast indicates that it has also shown signs of active behavior during March and April, which constitutes another favorable condition for the development of cyclonic activity.