Epidemic could peak in Cuba next week

HAVANA, April 29th (Granma) Raúl Guinovart Díaz, dean of the University of Havana’s Mathematics Department, states, “The forecast now indicates that approximately next week we will reach the peak, ahead of the international average. This is a reserved prognosis that will depend on the evolution of the disease over the next few days.”

Any relaxing of social distancing measures could, however, reverse the current pattern, he noted, saying “The epidemic is vulnerable to the actions we take, but this depends on social behaviour and government measures. It has been proven that we can change the course of the epidemic.”

A vaccine is seen as the ultimate solution to the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported that there are 70 such projects under development around the world, while health authorities here have reported that work is underway in Cuba on four vaccine candidates. No firm projections have been made as to when one might be available.

Authorities insist, however, that there is a vaccine within each one of us: discipline and responsibility in our behaviour to break the chain of contagion.

Cuba has seen weeks with more than 50% of new cases being asymptomatic, making clear the importance of social distancing, with hand-washing and the use of face-masks, since no one can recognize a carrier of the virus or a surface where it may be present.