At least 15 cyclones forecast in North Atlantic Hurricane season

HAVANA, June 29 (PL ) At least 15 tropical cyclones could affect the North Atlantic area, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico during the current hurricane season, the Master of Science, Ailyn Jústiz highlighted today.

According to the specialist from the Cuban Institute of Meteorology, the warm temperature, more than normal in the waters of the tropical strip of the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, will be a favourable element for the formation and development of cyclones in this basin, which leads to an active season until next November 30. hurricane

In a dialogue with Prensa Latina via the internet, the university professor pointed out that the El Niño Oscillation of the South event presents neutral conditions and most of the models indicate the persistence of neutrality during the rest of the year, with a certain tendency towards La Niña at the end of 2020.

Jústiz said that these conditions and other anomalies in the upper atmosphere air forecast around 15 tropical cyclones in the entire North Atlantic basin, of which eight may reach the category of hurricane.

The meteorologist from the largest of the Antilles commented that the probabilities for the formation of a hurricane in the Caribbean region and the affectation of one of Atlantic origin are 80 per cent.

In the exchange, the Cuban specialist stated that the months of greatest affectation are August, September and October since in this period the influence of the Atlantic anticyclone decreases with respect to June and July. She stressed that in this stage the frequent passage of tropical systems (waves and lows) occurs, in addition to the increase in temperature, humidity and other elements at height such as the behaviour of winds.

She clarified to Prensa Latina that although the cyclone season occurs between June and November, these phenomena may originate outside this stage, as happened last May with tropical storms Arthur and Bertha.

The master reported that tropical cyclones are classified according to the intensity of the maximum sustained winds (the average in one minute) on the surface as a tropical depression (up to 63 kilometres per hour), tropical storm (between 64 and 118 kilometers per hour) and hurricane (greater than 119 kilometres per hour).

In this sense, she pointed out that the life cycle of a hurricane can last more than two weeks and according to the Saffir Simpson Scale they can be up to a maximum of five categories, with minimal, moderate, extensive, extreme and catastrophic damage.

Since 1953 these phenomena, when they acquire the status of a tropical storm, have been called women or men, according to a list created by the World Meteorological Organization.

In this century, hurricanes such as Iván (2004), Gustav (2008), Matthew (2016), Irma (2017) and Dorian (2019) reached category five by registering maximum sustained winds above 252 km / h to cause havoc, damage and loss of life in Caribbean nations.